Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $186,963$ on 2020-12-17

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,955$ on 2020-12-17

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,445$ on 2020-12-17

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $399,511$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,755,457.5}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 338.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,755,457.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,487$ on 2020-12-17

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $81,524$ on 2020-12-17

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,906,377$ on 2020-12-17

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $67,220$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,969.6}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 55.3)}}\) (asimptote \(39,969.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $635,343$ on 2020-12-17

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $17,206,647$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{160,834,321.6}{1 + 10^{-0.005 (t - 484.3)}}\) (asimptote \(160,834,321.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $310,699$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{297,568.8}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 138.1)}}\) (asimptote \(297,568.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,895,948$ on 2020-12-17

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,954,268$ on 2020-12-17

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $66,150$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,801.6}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 51.9)}}\) (asimptote \(45,801.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,883,995$ on 2020-12-17

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $357,466$ on 2020-12-17

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7,893$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,067.2}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 55.2)}}\) (asimptote \(6,067.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $349,573$ on 2020-12-17

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,454,009$ on 2020-12-17

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $25,027$ on 2020-12-17

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $350,038$ on 2020-12-17

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Saudi Arabia recovered 95%
Qatar recovered 94%
Iceland recovered 89%
Trinidad and Tobago recovered 82%
Maldives recovered 80%
Kuwait recovered 80%
Nepal recovered 79%
Jordan recovered 76%
Tajikistan recovered 75%
India recovered 69%
Ethiopia recovered 63%
Austria recovered 57%
Armenia recovered 54%
Bangladesh recovered 50%
Poland recovered 45%
Costa Rica recovered 43%
Kenya recovered 41%
Morocco recovered 34%
Jamaica recovered 31%
Romania recovered 28%
Malta recovered 25%
Italy recovered 21%
Iraq recovered 17%
Montenegro recovered 17%
Iran recovered 12%
Bosnia and Herzegovina recovered 10%
Bulgaria recovered 8%
Ukraine recovered 4%

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $360,516$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{347,729.0}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 108.3)}}\) (asimptote \(347,729.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,091$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,964.4}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 132.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,964.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,060$ on 2020-12-17

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $141,557$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{129,273.8}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 100.9)}}\) (asimptote \(129,273.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $242$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{228.0}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 97.9)}}\) (asimptote \(228.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,072$ on 2020-12-17

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,588$ on 2020-12-17

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28$ on 2020-12-17

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $137$ on 2020-12-17

Trinidad and Tobago⮸

Population $1,399,488$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,940$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,486.9}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 188.3)}}\) (asimptote \(6,486.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $123$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{121.1}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 181.3)}}\) (asimptote \(121.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $432$ on 2020-12-17